受中國六代機(jī)刺激 英日意俄等國紛紛加快研發(fā)下一代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)計劃 開啟跨國空中優(yōu)勢競賽
Next Generation Fighter Programs - The multinational race for air superiority
譯文簡介
今天，我將繼續(xù)與皇家聯(lián)合服務(wù)研究所（RUSI）的賈斯廷·布朗克（Justin Bronk）討論其他國家在開發(fā)下一代平臺方面的努力，從美國的NGAD計劃到歐洲和俄羅斯的項(xiàng)目。
正文翻譯
Today, I continue my discussion with RUSI's Justin Bronk to cover off other nations efforts to develop their own next generation platforms, from the US NGAD effort to European and Russian programs.
今天，我將繼續(xù)與皇家聯(lián)合服務(wù)研究所（RUSI）的賈斯廷·布朗克（Justin Bronk）討論其他國家在開發(fā)下一代平臺方面的努力，從美國的NGAD計劃到歐洲和俄羅斯的項(xiàng)目。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.flyercoupe.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
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Controlling the aircraft with gestures. Was that an Italian requirement?
用手勢控制飛機(jī)。這是意大利的要求嗎？
Amongst the sweep of demands on requirements and design complexities, I'm left wondering: where will the air forces find, and how will they train, pilots for these monstrosities?
At what point will an uncrewed, "AI" piloted system be more feasible than a meatbag with a joystick ( as Bender might put it ) ?
在眾多的需求和設(shè)計復(fù)雜性的要求下，我不禁想知道：空軍將如何找到并訓(xùn)練這些怪物的飛行員？
在什么時刻，由“AI”駕駛的飛行系統(tǒng)比起一個拿著操縱桿的“肉體”飛行員變得更可行？
The fact that the Su-57 is even mentioned in a conversation about different countries next/6th gen programs really demonstrates how dire things are for the Russian aviation industry.
提到蘇-57與其他國家的下一代或第六代計劃，真的是反映了俄羅斯航空工業(yè)的嚴(yán)峻形勢。
Russia is not USSR though some leftist and right-wingers in the West continue to think so. A lot of Soviet Aviation industry was lost. Factories and experienced developers and personnel.
So Su-57 is a small batch of prototypes by the Soviet standards. They never fly close to the Ukrainian borders because of the risk of meeting unfriendly Patriot
俄羅斯不是蘇聯(lián)，盡管一些西方的左派和右派依然這么認(rèn)為。很多蘇聯(lián)的航空工業(yè)已經(jīng)喪失，工廠、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的開發(fā)人員和技術(shù)人員都消失了。
因此，蘇-57對于蘇聯(lián)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來說只是一個小批量的原型機(jī)。它們從不接近烏克蘭邊境，因?yàn)橛锌赡苡龅讲挥押玫膼蹏邔?dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)。
I’m not entirely convinced we can classify the Tempest, FCAS, or F-X as true 6th-generation fighter jets. All three designs feature tails, which limits their stealth capabilities from certain angles, making them less effective in all aspect stealth compared to tailless designs. At this point, they seem more like advanced 5.5-generation fighters rather than fully fledged 6th-gen aircraft. The Tempest, FCAS, or F-X are more like a better version of J-20S.
我不完全相信我們可以把“風(fēng)暴”計劃、FCAS或者F-X稱為真正的第六代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。三種設(shè)計都帶有尾翼，這會限制它們在某些角度的隱身能力，相比于無尾設(shè)計，它們的全方位隱身效果較差。到目前為止，它們更像是先進(jìn)的5.5代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，而不是完全成熟的第六代飛機(jī)。風(fēng)暴、FCAS或者F-X更像是J-20S的改進(jìn)版。
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I'm surprised they're not trying to build more MiG-31s (maybe they are and I've not read about it). They seem to have performed really well and been a good fit for the type of air war that Russia has ended up fighting. I'd expect them to be cheaper and easier to build than Su-57s as well, although there could be an issue with restarting production lines that were either shut down years ago or no longer exist in any capacity.
我很驚訝他們沒有嘗試制造更多的米格-31（也許他們正在做，我沒看到相關(guān)報道）。它們似乎表現(xiàn)得很好，適合俄羅斯當(dāng)前的空戰(zhàn)方式。我也認(rèn)為它們比蘇-57便宜且更容易制造，盡管可能存在重新啟動已經(jīng)停產(chǎn)的生產(chǎn)線的問題，這些生產(chǎn)線早已停工或根本不存在。
The Su57 was offered for sale at China's Zhuhai airshow in November, remember? There were comments about rivets or screw-heads or something sticking up, and there were a couple of gaps in the airfrx that didn't suggest precision manufacturing techniques. It doesn't really matter what pro or anti Russian parrots proclaim... but, how many orders came in, after the show until now? Talk is cheap. Did anybody place an order for one?
記得去年11月，在中國珠海航展上，蘇-57曾被出售嗎？有人提到飛機(jī)上有鉚釘或螺絲頭突出，機(jī)身上也有幾個縫隙，表明制造工藝并不精密。無論親俄還是反俄的人怎么說…但，展會后到現(xiàn)在，究竟有多少訂單進(jìn)來了？空談無用。有人下單了嗎？
it is 100% a horrendous event for Russia and they should be embarrassed, but I'm more just mad at being called a Russian bot for citing a video from the bloody sun. A technical note but the su-57 at the air show wasn't an su-57 but a pre-production prototype because their production su-57s were being used in missile strikes. Again, embarrassing but not indicative of the su-57 being terrible and unable to do anything. My stance is still 'its a solid air frx, maybe it's stealthy. Just a decade too late and not in any relevant quantity"
這是俄羅斯的一個100%可恥的事件，他們應(yīng)該感到羞愧，但我更生氣的是因?yàn)橐昧艘欢蝸碜浴短枅蟆返囊曨l就被稱為俄羅斯水軍。技術(shù)說明：在航展上展出的蘇-57并不是蘇-57，而是預(yù)生產(chǎn)的一個原型機(jī)，因?yàn)樗鼈兊牧慨a(chǎn)型蘇-57正在執(zhí)行導(dǎo)彈打擊任務(wù)。
再說一次，盡管尷尬，但并不能說明蘇-57毫無用處，什么也做不了。我的立場依然是“它是一個堅(jiān)固的機(jī)身，也許隱身效果不錯。只不過晚了十年，數(shù)量也不夠?！?/b>
The su-57 is a fully developed 5th gen fighter, thats hard fact. And you can see the gradual increase in production over the last few years except in 2024 because they were waiting for the new engines. And what does ,,by soviet standarts" mean ?
Also it was proven that a su-57 had entered deep into ukrianian territory when it had to take down its own drone because it didnt respond. Neither the drone nor the jet were detected
蘇-57是完全成熟的第五代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，這是不容置疑的事實(shí)。過去幾年其產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長（2024年除外，因等待新型發(fā)動機(jī)列裝）。所謂"按蘇聯(lián)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)"究竟意指何為？
另有確鑿證據(jù)顯示，一架蘇-57曾深入烏克蘭領(lǐng)空擊落己方失控?zé)o人機(jī)，期間該戰(zhàn)機(jī)與無人機(jī)均未被敵方偵測系統(tǒng)發(fā)現(xiàn)。
GCAP and NGAD soon. Or maybe GCAP is soon while NGAD has already flown in 2020. Cmon lockheed, or whoever. Show us THAT
GCAP和NGAD很快就會到來?；蛘哒f，GCAP可能很快，而NGAD已經(jīng)在2020年飛行過了。拜托，洛克希德馬丁，或者其他公司。給我們看看那個吧！
Imagine the fun some F-22 squadrons could have in the Ukrainian theater.
Two nations fighting each other into an attritional degradation of air assets that were a generation behind to start, while also taking a heavy toll on their AA abilities.
But, it seems unlikely that we will see the F-22’s fully committed in a conflict vs another even semi peer air force before the airfrx ages out.
想象一下，某些F-22編隊(duì)在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)區(qū)的表現(xiàn)。
兩個國家互相對抗，用的都是落后一代戰(zhàn)機(jī)的消耗戰(zhàn)，同時還在重創(chuàng)他們的防空能力。
不過，看起來我們不太可能在F-22的空架逐漸老化之前，我們恐怕都看不到它被投入對抗哪怕是半同級對手的空戰(zhàn)了。
the running theme im seeing is that modern nations cannot maintain the power needed for all their needs even in the best of circumstances
當(dāng)前局勢的核心矛盾在于：即便處于最有利的條件下，現(xiàn)代國家也無力維持其全方位所需的軍事力量。
I mean, wasting trillions on two forever wars for two decades is far from “the best of times.”
But yeah, it’s hard to fund big programs when the entire world hurtles deeper into wealth inequality strangling national budgets.
我是說，浪費(fèi)數(shù)萬億在兩場永遠(yuǎn)的戰(zhàn)爭上，持續(xù)了二十年，遠(yuǎn)不是“最好的時光”。
但的確，當(dāng)全球財富不平等不斷加劇，國家預(yù)算受制時，資金支持大型項(xiàng)目真的很困難。
First "3 days to Kiev" and now "Pak Da will enter service 2025". I wonder if time just flows differently in russia.
首先是“3天到基輔”，然后是“PAK-DA隱身戰(zhàn)略轟炸機(jī)將于2025年服役”。我真懷疑俄羅斯的時間是不是流動得不同。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.flyercoupe.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
This MiG 41 project sounds like something a 9yo boy designed. It’ll have lasers, and it can fly in outer space, and it’ll go to the North Pole!
這個米格41項(xiàng)目聽起來像是一個9歲小男孩設(shè)計的。它有激光武器，可以在外太空飛行，還能去北極！
Notably absent: SAAB, EMBRAER
We have been here before. When the 2nd generation peaked with large, complex, expensive, unsustainable Tomcats, XB70s.
Technology was developed to allow "simpler" hornets and falcons to do the job. Hell, the buff is still viable thanks to platform upgrades and better delivery vectors.
It will be painful, it will be wasteful. We will see something like the tigershark fall into oblivion.
得注意的是，薩博（SAAB）和巴西航空工業(yè)（EMBRAER）并未參與其中。
這一幕我們似曾相識——當(dāng)?shù)诙鷳?zhàn)機(jī)發(fā)展到頂峰時，"雄貓"以及女武神轟炸機(jī)等機(jī)型變得龐大、復(fù)雜、昂貴且難以持續(xù)。后來技術(shù)的發(fā)展讓"大黃蜂"和"戰(zhàn)隼"這類更簡潔的戰(zhàn)機(jī)得以勝任任務(wù)。甚至"B52"轟炸機(jī)至今仍通過平臺升級和更先進(jìn)的投送方式保持戰(zhàn)斗力。
這一轉(zhuǎn)型過程必將伴隨陣痛與浪費(fèi)，我們將目睹"虎鯊F20"之類的機(jī)型徹底退出歷史舞臺。
Seems to me the most logical short term defence program for Europe: protect, arm and secure Ukraine. Whatever it takes. Yes do the military drills back home, arm up etc, but Ukraine is Europe’s best defence and barometer of how things might play out. If Russia sees Europe and US abandon Ukraine it will only embolden Russia/China. We need to learn from the mistakes of history. The outcome in Ukraine will have major tremors. Ukraine have modern front line experience fighting Russian forces and are willing to keep fighting - imagine that, after 3 years of hell, their troops and leader aren’t backing down. Short of NATO or escalation, Europe needs to spend some serious GDP on defence but doing everything they can for Ukraine. Yes get those Tempests up in the Air ASAP but it’s not the interim strategy. Ukraine is. Japan’s only interim strategy seems to be US and Australian forces. Japan especially needs to become a viable deterrent in China’s push south and China will not like a war on both fronts, even if one side is a proxy war via Russia. AIR programs aside, the best thing we can do right now is take care of our neighbours on the front line: Ukraine and Japan. That will likely send a bigger message than any stealth jet program that can’t do anything for 10+ years. Just my opinion.
在我看來，對歐洲來說，最具邏輯的短期防御計劃是：保護(hù)、武裝并確保烏克蘭的安全。不惜一切代價。
是的，可以進(jìn)行國內(nèi)的軍事演習(xí)、加強(qiáng)武裝等等，但烏克蘭是歐洲最好的防線，是評估局勢發(fā)展的晴雨表。
如果俄羅斯看到歐洲和美國拋棄烏克蘭，只會讓俄羅斯和中國更加有恃無恐。我們需要從歷史的錯誤中吸取教訓(xùn)。
烏克蘭的結(jié)局將帶來重大的連鎖反應(yīng)。烏克蘭擁有與俄羅斯作戰(zhàn)的現(xiàn)代前線經(jīng)驗(yàn)，且愿意繼續(xù)戰(zhàn)斗——想象一下，在三年的地獄之后，他們的軍隊(duì)和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沒有退縮。除非北約介入或局勢升級，否則歐洲需要在國防上投入更多的GDP，但同時做的一切都是為了烏克蘭。
是的，趕快讓風(fēng)暴計劃（Tempest）起飛。日本的策略似乎只有依賴美國和澳大利亞的力量。日本特別需要成為有效的威懾力量，遏制中國的南進(jìn)，中國不會喜歡在兩個戰(zhàn)線作戰(zhàn)，即使一方是通過俄羅斯代理的戰(zhàn)爭。
除了空中計劃，眼下我們能做的最好的事情是照顧好前線鄰國：烏克蘭和日本。這可能比任何無法在10年內(nèi)投入使用的隱身戰(zhàn)機(jī)計劃更能傳遞信息。僅僅是我個人的看法。
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Honestly a good stopgap for UCAVs or Loyal Wingman may be to take obsolete or obsolecent manned aircraft and configure them for remote flight. F-4s and legacy F-16s should be easy enough to put modern weapon hardpoints (assuming they even need the upgrade), and you could use them as attack craft, while your 5th/6th gen aircraft provide control/top cover.
老實(shí)說，對于無人戰(zhàn)機(jī)（UCAV）或忠誠僚機(jī)的一個不錯的應(yīng)急方案，可能是利用過時或即將淘汰的有人駕駛飛機(jī)，并將其改裝為遠(yuǎn)程無人駕駛飛機(jī)。F-4和老式F-16應(yīng)該很容易裝配現(xiàn)代化的武器掛點(diǎn)（假設(shè)它們甚至需要升級），你可以將它們用作攻擊機(jī)，而你的5代或者6代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)則提供空中掩護(hù)。
Germany seems to double down less on the F-35 and more on the Eurofighter similar to the F5, which isn’t surprising considering EF has a lot more untapped growth potential than the Rafale to begin with. The main reason for procuring the F-35 seems to be nuclear deterrence. With the improvements in sensor technology the European 4.5 are becoming a lot more dominant in the supposed era of fifth gens, leveraging their substantial lead in AAM technology.
德國似乎減少了對F-35的依賴，更加傾向于購買升級版的歐洲戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，類似于F5戰(zhàn)機(jī)，這并不令人驚訝，因?yàn)闅W洲戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)的潛力比“陣風(fēng)”要大得多。購買F-35的主要原因似乎是為了核威懾。隨著傳感器技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，歐洲的4.5代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)在所謂的5代時代中變得越來越具有優(yōu)勢，充分發(fā)揮了它們在空空導(dǎo)彈技術(shù)上的顯著優(yōu)勢。
honestly a bit dissapointed that we didnt even get a shoutout to the swedish next gen fighter project concidering saab has already announced they are working on a prototype
老實(shí)說，有點(diǎn)失望，沒看到有人提到瑞典的下一代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)項(xiàng)目，畢竟薩博SAAB已經(jīng)宣布正在開發(fā)原型機(jī)了。
They've never even made a 5th gen, and their whole M.O. has been "cheap". Not going to happen; they will never have the budget.
瑞典從未制造過5代機(jī)，而且他們的全部操作模式就是“便宜”。這不可能發(fā)生；他們永遠(yuǎn)沒有足夠的預(yù)算。
I actually do think what SAAB see as the future is CCA and that was one of the reason they left the Tempest coalition as one of the main developers. At least I hope so as that going for a new generation of aircraft in my humble opinion makes no sense.
Why? I do think the cost of these new "6:th gen" aircraft to develop, buy AND maintain will be mindboggling (not to mention delayed) and will break any budget unless cutting down the numbers of aircraft way too low.
So instead going for "6:th gen" why not go for CCA instead, initially teamed up with current generations of (improved?) aircraft?
UAV′s has already totally reshaped ground warfare. CCA Air warfare is next.
我其實(shí)認(rèn)為薩博看到的未來是CCA（協(xié)同作戰(zhàn)空中平臺），這也是他們作為主要開發(fā)者之一退出暴雨戰(zhàn)機(jī)聯(lián)盟的原因之一。至少我希望如此，因?yàn)槲覀€人認(rèn)為追求新一代戰(zhàn)機(jī)沒有意義。
為什么？我認(rèn)為開發(fā)、購買和維護(hù)這些“6代機(jī)”的成本會令人咋舌，如果不減少飛機(jī)數(shù)量，預(yù)算將會崩潰。
所以與其追求“6代機(jī)”，為什么不選擇CCA，最初與現(xiàn)有和改進(jìn)過的飛機(jī)進(jìn)行協(xié)同作戰(zhàn)呢？
無人機(jī)已經(jīng)徹底改變了地面戰(zhàn)斗。CCA空戰(zhàn)是下一個。
I think the issues raised in USAF NGAD paper released a couple of weeks ago, needs to be discussed. Is high speed still needed ? Is the ability to dog fight still needed, when range and the best stealth you can get becomes the premium. The convergence of bomber and fighter design requirements implies the modified (I expect) B-21 design with a fighter based radar and detection suite the NGAD solution ?
Arguably, the peace dividend and anti=terrorism spending in Iraq and Afghanistan has ensured that the USA hasn't replaced or its aircraft, naval and army equipment quickly enough and the entire problem today is the need to modernise everything at the same time.
The other question is Is this another Russia tech scare ? (remember the Mig-25) Does China really have the digital and materials engineering to really match which the USA/Europe is capable of manufacturing anyway.
我認(rèn)為美國空軍最近發(fā)布的NGAD論文中提出的問題值得討論。高速性能是否仍然必要？
當(dāng)續(xù)航和最佳隱身性能成為最重要因素時，空戰(zhàn)能力還需要嗎？轟炸機(jī)和戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)設(shè)計要求的趨同是否意味著B-21設(shè)計被修改，以配備基于戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)雷達(dá)和探測系統(tǒng)的NGAD解決方案？
可以說，伊拉克和阿富汗的和平紅利和反恐支出使得美國沒有及時替換或更新其飛機(jī)、海軍和陸軍裝備，而今天的整個問題是需要同時把裝備都現(xiàn)代化。
另一個問題是，這是不是又一次俄羅斯技術(shù)恐慌時刻？（記得米格-25嗎？）中國真的有數(shù)字化和材料工程技術(shù)來匹敵美國和歐洲的制造能力嗎？
I read an interesting article about how the US' ICBM arm of the nuclear triad was the least useful arm and could be dropped.
Japan could be in a much better position if they could just apologize openly, directly and meaningfully to South Korea. For all their shame and responsibility culture, that bridge is just too long for them to cross.
That could provide for a true trilateral alliance with the US rather than them being allied to each other through the US.
我讀過一篇有趣的文章，講到美國的洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈是核三位一體部分是最沒用的一部分，可能會被淘汰。
如果日本能夠公開、直接且有意義地向韓國道歉，他們可能會處于更有利的位置。盡管他們有羞恥感和責(zé)任文化，但這一橋梁對于他們來說似乎太難跨越了。
這將為他們與美國之間的真正三邊聯(lián)盟提供機(jī)會，而不是通過美國相互結(jié)盟。
I don't really see how the Su-35 order upsets the balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It will just mean that Iran has, probably only a fairly small number, of credible 4.5 gen aircraft which will still be outmatched by Saudi's Eurofighters and late-model F15s. Plus they are almost definitely going to order some latest model Eurofighter or Rafale soon.
我不太明白蘇-35訂單如何打破伊朗與沙特之間的力量平衡。它只意味著伊朗可能擁有少量較為可靠的4.5代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，但它們?nèi)詴簧程氐臍W洲戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)和最新型號的F-15壓制。而且，他們很可能很快就會訂購一些最新型號的歐洲戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)或陣風(fēng)。
Idea of UK removing France from industrial leadership in aerospace is a bit laughable when they have Dassault and airbus are french. Their leader in Europe by quite a long way.
Sweden has more of an aerospace industry left.
關(guān)于英國將法國排除在航空航天工業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位之外的想法有點(diǎn)可笑，因?yàn)檫_(dá)索（Dassault）和空客（Airbus）是法國的。它們在歐洲的領(lǐng)先地位遙不可及。
瑞典在航空航天行業(yè)的份額更大一些。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.flyercoupe.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Russia working on 7th gen fighters?
Well bekistan is working on 9001th gen fighter
俄羅斯正在研發(fā)7代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)？
好吧，巴基斯坦正在研發(fā)9001代戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。
I feel like the part about Italy and the UK was a bit too pessimistic, those countries still have a really solid military industrial base, being capable of producing cutting edge equipment, they have historical ties in the aerospace industry ( Eurofighter, F35A, F35B, Harrier have been fielded by both). It's true that the US new position will probably force a rethinking of the spending, but the two nations still operate in the frxwork of European security, so they won't need to do everything by themselvs
我覺得關(guān)于意大利和英國的部分有點(diǎn)悲觀，這兩個國家依然擁有非常堅(jiān)實(shí)的軍事工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，能夠生產(chǎn)尖端裝備，且它們在航空航天行業(yè)有著深厚的歷史聯(lián)系（歐洲戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)、F-35A、F-35B、鷂式戰(zhàn)機(jī)都由兩國共同服役）。
的確，美國政府的新立場可能會迫使重新考慮開支，但這兩個國家仍然在歐洲安全框架內(nèi)運(yùn)作，因此他們不需要單獨(dú)承擔(dān)所有責(zé)任。
Chinese stealth prototypes are still just trying to compete with the B-2, B-21, F-22 and F-35. NGAD is something else altogether.
and don't forget B-21 can hit Chinese targets without tankers from the contiguous US.
中國的隱身原型機(jī)仍然只是在試圖與B-2、B-21、F-22和F-35競爭。NGAD是完全不同的東西。
別忘了，B-21可以從美國本土直接打擊中國目標(biāo)，甚至不需要加油機(jī)。